[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOUTH OF NW AFRICA
EXTENDING FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4N TO 2N14W TO 5N24W TO
3N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 3N27W AND CONTINUES TO 1N35W TO 2N44W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 15W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N94W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF FRONT. 25-30 KT N WINDS ARE
W OF FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. 10 KT SE-S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N66W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO
25N45W TO 22N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO N
OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
24N BETWEEN 34W-41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM NW OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-55W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N72W TO N FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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