[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOUTH OF NW AFRICA
EXTENDING FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4N TO 2N10W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 2N10W AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W TO 1N33W TO 2N42W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N90W TO 25N94W TO N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 20N96W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT. 25-30
KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 10 KT SE-S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO
25N42W TO 23N46W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO N
OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
22N BETWEEN 32W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM NW OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-55W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N60W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net