[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOUTH OF NW AFRICA
EXTENDING FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 4N TO 3N7W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
FROM 3N7W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N16W 3N27W 3N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
22W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE WEST
ATLC. LIGHT SE-S FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF AROUND THE
RIDGE. A COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO EASTERN MEXICO ALONG 29N91W
26N96W 23N98W...AS OF 2100 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE UP TO 150
NM WEST OF THE AXIS ALONG WITH STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT.
ALOFT...MAINLY SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY AIR EXCEPT
FOR THE NW GULF WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IS NOTED NEAR THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR AND WEST OF THE AXIS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE REACHING 25
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N68W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST ATLC.
TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N38W 24N50W 19N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE AXIS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 35W-40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 40N17W. THE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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