[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
4N TO 3N7W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N7W TO 3N11W 4N15W 3N23W
3N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 40W...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 8W...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS WITHIN 330 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N105W ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO...TO 28N100W ALONG THE
TEXAS/ MEXICO BORDER...BEYOND 32N93W IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST...PARALLELING THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE LOW CENTER
INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 23N100W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N72W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N...INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W...THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 19N99W IN MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE
30N92W 25N97W COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THAT AREA IN ABOUT
SIX HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. BROAD LARGE-SCALE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH. THAT MEANS THAT LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF 37W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W...FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 61W AND 71W...FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W...
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND THE JAMAICAN CHANNEL...FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W
AND 87W MOVING ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT
01/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.35 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
7N81W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...AND BEYOND 7N85W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N
TO THE EAST OF 86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
70W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC-TO-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THAT MEANS THAT LARGE-SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF 37W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N37W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N42W
24N50W 21N60W...TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 18N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N42W TO
28N53W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N72W...BEYOND FLORIDA ALONG 28N.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N22W
TO 31N25W 26N33W 22N41W AND 20N48W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS OR LESS AND 15 TO 22 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE 31N41W 19N68W COLD
FRONT AND 60W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS OR LESS AND
9 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO
73W...EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W WIND SPEEDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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