[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW
OVER SENEGAL ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING
ALONG 7N15W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W 2N40W
THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ
TO 5N BETWEEN 35W-52W. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANT WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 25/0900 UTC NEAR ORLANDO INTO THE GULF
NEAR 29N83W THEN ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO ALONG THE
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
STATES E OF 92W. THIS IS GIVING THE S GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N OF AREA TODAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH FROM 30N89W TO 18N95W EARLY TONIGHT THEN FROM FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OUT
OF GULF WATERS WED AS REINFORCING SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF
TEXAS COAST AND RACES SE OF THE GULF BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN
74W-80W. LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THIS MORNING. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AT 25/0900 UTC NEAR 32N60W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N65W TO 29N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 28N74W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FRONT
BECOMES A WARM FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB NEAR 26N47W. A NARROW DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N20W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N27W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 24N27W TO 18N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG
27N LATER TODAY THEN LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA
COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT STALL ON FRI AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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