[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N15W TO
2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W 2N38W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W AND 51W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N9W TO
1N14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-45W. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
14W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERED THE GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT HAS DAMPENED OUT GIVING THE GULF NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 25/0300 UTC AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
TAMPA TO 28N85W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT DRIFTING N ALONG
29N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST STATES E OF 95W. THIS IS GIVING THE S GULF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE N TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNRISE MON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
MON EVENING THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TUE MORNING BEFORE SLOWING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SE
GULF ON WED JUST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AND RACES SE OF THE GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT HAS
DAMPENED OUT GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 32N SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 25/0300 UTC NEAR 32N62W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 29N71W TO 27N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT
ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN
MELBOURNE AND TAMPA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF
79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
NEAR 28N50W. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W TO 20N25W AND
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N28W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 24N31W TO 19N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E
ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF PORTUGAL. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY ALONG
27N ON MON THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU THEN STALL ON
FRI AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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