[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GUINEA NEAR 11N15W INTO
THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N16W 3N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT
3N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W EQ45W 1S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 38W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN THERE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS
OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
28N80W TO 27N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 27N87W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHER TEXAS COAST ALONG
28N92W 27N97W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES UP
TO 31N. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. EASTERLY WINDS OF
MAINLY 15 KT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE AXIS AS WELL. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW GULF WHILE 10-15
KT S-SW WINDS COVER THE SE GULF. THE SOUTHERN GULF ALSO HAS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THAT PORTION OF
THE BASIN WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT HAS LOST
MUCH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE A COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT WITH A FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING UP TO 30 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS ALSO IMPACTING THE NW ATLC WITH A SMALL PORTION IN THE
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N72W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
CAPE CANAVERAL AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH...AND 80 NM NORTH OF THE
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING 60W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
AXIS ALONG 55W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
NEAR 28N55W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
AREA. TO THE EAST...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ALONG 34W SUPPORTS A
SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N32W AND CONTINUING
ALONG 26N32W 20N41W 17N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UP TO 220 NM EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 29N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM EAST OF THE AXIS
FROM 20N-29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N14W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC AND IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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