[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W
CONTINUING TO 6N16W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 0N40W
1N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 14W-17W...AND FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 14W-18W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM
1S-4N BETWEEN 27W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N85W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 27N88W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FURTHER TO THE W GULF AT 25N97W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT
22N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF W
OF TAMPA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF S OF THE FRONTS. 15 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONTS...WHILE 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONTS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
26N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND
OVER E TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT N OF THE GULF OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES. THE ENTIRE GULF WILL THEN BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE
NW GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE
CARIBBEAN NAMELY ALONG THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA...ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 79W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW IS NOTED. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 32N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N59W. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 2625N35W TO 18N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN
30W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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