[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU CONTINUING
ALONG 7N17W TO 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 1N39W
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 2N13W TO
1N18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
6W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 24W-43W...AND FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE E AS
COLD FRONT AND AT 24/0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY CONTINUING ALONG 28N88W TO 25N93W
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT DRIFTING NW ALONG 24N95W TO
21N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30/45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS GIVING THE
S GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE N PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC DRAPING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY MON REACHING FROM
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON THEN FROM
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE BEING SE OF
AREA TUE NIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST WED
AND RACE SE OF AREA EARLY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND 66W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN. MAINLY
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 24/0900 UTC NEAR 32N80W AND
EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE AND CEDAR KEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N W OF 73W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BEYOND 32N68W. THE W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB NEAR 30N62W. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W
TO 21N38W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N33W AND EXTENDS ALONG 23N39W TO 19N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N17W TO BEYOND 32N21W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY
A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN LIFT
BACK N AS WARM FRONT MON AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE. SECOND FRONT WILL STALL FROM
32N67W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED WITH REMNANTS OF FRONT LIFTING
N LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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