[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING TO 5N20W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 1N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 4W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-32W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4N BETWEEN 36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT. AN SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING NE AWAY
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER SW
GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND
PENSACOLA ALONG 28N90W ALONG 24N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 27N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO JACKSONVILLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
MOVE E AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN THEN
STALL SUN AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT LATE
SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND
EARLY MON AND REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON THEN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND EARLY TUE AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF TUE
NIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AND RACE
SE OF THE GULF EARLY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-81W
AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
S NICARAGUA. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-67W
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUN. MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE
AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1022 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W. THIS RIDGE IS SHIFTING
SE AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS COAST.
A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO 21N43W AND
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 24N42W TO 20N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 18N18W TO BEYOND 32N20W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
ABOUT 450 NM E OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST AROUND SUNRISE SUN. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT ON MON AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON WED WITH REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT LIFTING N ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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