[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO 02N45W TO 01N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEAR 33N100W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON TO NEW ORLEANS TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N83W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N E OF 90W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF SE ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND GEORGIA.
THE OTHER FRONT...A COLD FRONT...AS OF 25/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO.
LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A FEW SHIP AND
OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF SHOW STRONG
N-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING RAPIDLY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF
WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
N OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT FROM 10N-20N. AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE
MOISTURE IS NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT.
THE HIGHEST OF THESE WINDS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-78W...AND
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAKENED COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR 40N58W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING W-SW TO
28N65W TO 28N74W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COAST NEAR 28N81W. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH
OF THE AREA...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND N OF 26N W OF 74W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND GENERALLY
SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N40W. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N25W
THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N24W TO 25N25W TO
18N36W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net