[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 19W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 28N94W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WITH A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NW GULF. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
THE FRONT EAST OF 94W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SE LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST MEXICO AND AS THIS ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BECOME TRANSITION TO A
COLD FRONT AND BEGIN AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH N-NE WINDS
SPREADING W OF 90W BY LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 18N75W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL
WEATHER. EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST UNDER THIS ATMOSPHERIC REGIME
IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COLOMBIA COAST WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THIS OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANGE SNYOPTICALLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC W OF 55W BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
38N56W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BASIN. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS NOTED N OF 20N W OF 67W...A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE EAST OF
THIS RIDGE. THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N50W SW TO
24N63W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SECONDARY
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W TO
30N68W. WHILE PRECIPITATION-FREE...THE SECONDARY FRONT IS
PROVIDING FOR A DRIER AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT INDICATE A
15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC OVER THE
WEEKEND. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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