[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 2N20W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N
BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AT 31N87W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N95W TO S OF
MATAMOROS MEXICO AT 24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. 20 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15
KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
73W-77W. THIS GALE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MARYLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
TO E OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N49W TO 26N56W TO N OF PUERTO RICO AT 23N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 48W-50W N OF 28N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT. A GALE IS N OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF
29N W OF FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24
HOURS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
15N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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