[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E
TROPICAL ATLC BY SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 6N17W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO 1N23W EQ30W EQ40W 1S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-10N BETWEEN 7W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM
29N91W 27N94W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES ARE N OF 25N WEST OF 87W ASSOCIATED TO THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT WHEREAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS EAST OF
NEW ORLEANS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN S AND E OF THE FRONT WHICH IS
ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS. LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT LIE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W
N OF 22N. S OF 25N CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. IN THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT WILL DISPLACE EASTWARD AND WILL BE EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY
FROM ALABAMA TO MATAMOROS MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF
15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE E OF 92W WHILE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BUILDS S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGIONS. IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N WINDS OF 20-30 KT DOMINATE. NEARLY WESTERLY
FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE ALOFT THUS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...S OF LA HISPANIOLA AND WEST OF
JAMAICA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WEST ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO 28N54W
26N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 21N ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 30N34W. E OF THE HIGH...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N12W TO 27N19W. EXCEPT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS...VERY DRY AIR COVERS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALOFT WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC. IN 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST
ATLC WILL BE OVERRIDDEN BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA PLACING THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC. ALSO THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING MOSTLY TRADEWINDS S OF 20N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR








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