[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN
09W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO THE TIP OF THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE TEXAS COAST NORTH OF
BROWNSVILLE NEAR 27N97W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY
SE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY OVERTAKING THE STATIONARY FRONT
BY LATE SATURDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD...STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 26N E
OF 85W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT
TO THE NW. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING IS INDICATED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM A STRONGER 1030 MB
HIGH LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N86W E-NE TO
BEYOND 22N63W AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. WHILE A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A 16/0216 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT WERE CONFINED S OF 14N
BETWEEN 66W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO TRINIDAD
AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 78W. LOOKING AHEAD...A
STRONG FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
LATE SATURDAY AND EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. ALSO...A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION BORDER NEAR 35N69W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO 29N78W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
AREA WITHIN 420 NM NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT ARE EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS DENSE CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND 32N49W AND DOMINATES THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N10W TO 24N24W TO A
BASE NEAR 12N46W. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH AND
WEAKER 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N50W AND 25N37W
RESPECTIVELY. THE SW NORTH ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND WILL STRETCH
FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY THEN FROM
32N54W TO HISPANIOLA EARLY MONDAY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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