[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W THEN ALONG 3N16W TO 1N23W
WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO S
OF THE EQUATOR E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
11W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM 2N23W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 26N SUPPORTING A STRONG RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT
16/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN SAINT
AUGUSTINE AND CEDAR KEY CONTINUING ALONG THE 25N89W TO OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 TO 120 NM W OF
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 92W TO
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1033
MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS. A LEADING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF
WATERS BUT IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF
27N E OF 88W INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON REACHING FROM S FLORIDA
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING THEN QUICKLY PUSH OUT OF THE
GULF TONIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER HIGH NEAR 15N77W NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA ALONG
20N85W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS MAY USHER IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO S BELIZE THIS
EVENING THEN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA SUN MORNING
BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC
ARE SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
AT 16/1500 UTC NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 25N78W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF
HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT. A
STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS JUST EMERGED OFF THE E CONUS
COAST EXTENDING THROUGH 32N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM W OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT IN THE FORM
OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THESE COLD FRONTS EXTENDING
FROM A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR BERMUDA TO 31N67W TO 25N76W. DENSE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEADING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N38W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS N OF DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N41W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS TO
THE S ACROSS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER AFRICA
NEAR 27N7W ALONG 23N25W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 13N48W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE FRONTS AND TROUGH AND
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N47W. THE LEADING COLD FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MERGED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS
EVENING THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING
AND FROM 32N55W TO HISPANIOLA MON MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING MON NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N W
OF THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO 65W THROUGH
SUN EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PORTION ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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