[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
01N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 02W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 07W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO THE TIP OF THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED
FROM 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY OVERTAKING THE STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY. AS
THE COLD FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W.
ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS INDICATED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM A STRONGER 1027 MB
HIGH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N86W E-NE TO
BEYOND 20N60W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN.
WHILE A RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. A 16/0216 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE
STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT WERE CONFINED S OF 14N BETWEEN
66W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO TRINIDAD AND OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 78W. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG
FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE
SATURDAY AND EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GENERATING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. ALSO...A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION BORDER NEAR 35N71W WITH A FORMING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO 29N77W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
AREA WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LOW
AND FORMING COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS DENSE CLOUD
COVER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND 32N48W AND DOMINATES THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N13W TO 22N33W TO A
BASE NEAR 12N46W. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N49W. THE SW NORTH ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND WILL STRETCH
FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY THEN FROM
32N54W TO HISPANIOLA EARLY MONDAY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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