[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N15W THEN ALONG 5N15W TO 1N28W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ADDITIONAL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IN CLUSTERS WERE NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND
10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
CONTINUING ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SE AND OVERTAKE THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND USHER IN STRONG NLY WINDS IN
THE GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SW
GULF. CURRENTLY...REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGERY IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SE OF A VERO BEACH TO NAPLES LINE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM.
N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO TO THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF
26N. FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF WITH
REINFORCEMENT FROM A STRONGER 1032 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS IN
STREETS WERE INDICATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. ALTHOUGH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLC ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A 1716 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT WERE CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 75W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N EXTENDING INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
BETWEEN 68W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA.
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE. A STRONG FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
E HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY MON
MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD N OF THE AREA MON AND
TUE GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WAS ALONG
THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE
FRONT. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS DENSE
CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N52W AND DOMINATES THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 50W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W ALONG 22N30W TO A BASE NEAR
12N55W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE W ATLC
FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N51W. THE W ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT
AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING
THEN FROM 32N52W TO HAITI MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB






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