[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 11N15W THEN ALONG 8N19W TO 2N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N17W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA IN SW
AFRICA NEAR 5N9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT AT 15/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N88W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 26N. NE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 24N W OF 94W. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK
1022 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
N GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STATIONARY FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE N
GULF COAST STATES WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ENTER THE GULF LATE
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING MOVING SE OF THE GULF BY SAT
EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF LATE MON EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
ALTHOUGH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN
67W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHILE THE REMAINDER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY MON
MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD N OF THE AREA MON AND
TUE GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
15/1500 UTC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING TO 28N73W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CROSSING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. A WEAK 1016 MB
LOW DEVELOPED AT 15/1200 UTC AND IS LOCATED AT 15/1500 UTC NEAR
30N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR
PALM BEACH AND THE S TIP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DENSE LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 225/250 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS DENSE CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
BEYOND 32N55W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W ALONG 21N36W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR
12N51W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE W ATLC
FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N49W. THE W ATLC
FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT AND WILL
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING THEN FROM
32N52W TO HAITI MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE
AREA MON AND TUE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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