[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-34W...AND FROM 3S-2N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO MOBILE ALABAMA
TO 27N90W TO 24N96W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W.
15-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 33N70W TO S SOUTH
CAROLINA
NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 24N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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