[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N13W 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 1N23W 1N30W
EQ36W TO 2S41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
80 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS HAPPENING WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS HAPPENING
WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO 29N84W 26N89W 24N93W 20N96W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINSHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR ACROSS THIS REGION. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ENHANCES THE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
LIES EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE FRONT NORTHERLIES
IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT DISPLACE THE FRONT EASTWARD. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ENJOY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER BUT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONT CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND OVER THE SE GULF
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF THE SAME
MAGNITUDE SPREADS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN ADJACENT TO THE E COAST OF PANAMA AND N
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN
ARE N-NE OF THE LOW WHERE THE RANGE OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS
25-30 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN BEING
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA AND SAN SALVADOR.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTTING
THESE AREAS. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN 24
HOURS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BEING THE
NORTHERN PART OF IT AMONG TWO BROAD HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N34W
AND THEN SW TO 26N40W 22N45W 21N50W 19N57W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 40N33W TO 15N51W. SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 25N AND WITHIN 230 NM EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. SAME
TYPE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AXIS SOUTH OF 25N. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ARE
PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST ATLC...AS WELL AS OVER THE EAST ATLC NORTH
OF 25N EAST OF 34W. BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL BE POSITIONED WEST OF 70W IN
THE WEST ATLC AND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN
STALLED WHILE IT STEADILY WEAKEN. EXPECT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLC BUT MINIMUM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS





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