[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-34W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-87W. 15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS S
OF THE LOW CENTER. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE WARM
SECTOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SE GEORGIA
NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 24N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N76W TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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