[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE AT 7N12W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N15W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N30W EQ44W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD THE SW
ALONG 28N88W 27N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N96W
24N98W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UP TO 200 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT NORTH OF 27N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT UP TO 25 KT. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER WEST OF THE AXIS.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RACE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND BRING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N96W WITH A
VERY CLEAR CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OR ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF IS UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA SUPPORTS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE O
PUSH SE THROUGH THE BASIN WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA CENTERED NEAR PANAMA. CLEAR SKIES SPREAD WEST
OF 70W WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
TO THE EAST BETWEEN 65W-70W FROM 12N-17N ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING
TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA
OF 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS ALSO EXPECTED DRIFT WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROVIDING A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N64W TO 24N71W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 62W-69W. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IS ALSO PROVIDING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 75W NORTH OF 28N. THE FRONT/LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE ATLC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND BRING HEAVY WIND AND SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG IT. FARTHER EAST...THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N55W TO 27N56W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W TO 21N58W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. THESE FEATURES
ARE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1036
MB HIGH NEAR 42N19W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE EASTERN ATLC. ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 36W
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE
UPPER LOW IS NOT CAUSING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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