[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE AT 6N11W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N15W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N25W 3N34W 2N40W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL SE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 1W AND 10W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-32W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TOWARD THE SW ALONG 29N83W
27N86W 26N89W TO 26N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N94W
25N96W 24N97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLC STATES SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 26N-28N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT
ARE BOUNDED WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE SW GULF A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 23N95W 21N95W 19N94W. HOWEVER NO STRONG WINDS OR
ANY PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
GULF REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE
CARIBBEAN. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
SE TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE BASIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
BASIN AND WHICH CENTER LIES OVER COSTA RICA. WEST OF 70W CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION WHILE EAST OF 70W AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS FROM 12N-18N. THE CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS KEEPING TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-15
KT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED TO THE GULF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N66W SW TO 26N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 80 NM
ALONG THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST IN THE ATLC...THE TAIL END OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 30N54W TO 28N57W. NO SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N48W
26N52W TO 22N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
AXIS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 40W-54W. BOTH THE WEST ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH ARE BEING SUPPORTED
BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE EAST
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB
HIGH NEAR 41N20W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR







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