[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR
7N11W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N15W TO 4N20W TO 4N28W TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 6E-8W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1009 NM LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF S
ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N90W
TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF
28N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N.
ELSEWHERE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO AT
21N97W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 96W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER LOUISIANA
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN AND
BE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 18N65W TO N VENEZUELA AT 10N66W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 64W-69W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND N OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO MOVE W WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N63W TO 24N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N48W TO
21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N66W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND FROM 32N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC TROUGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH DRIFTS E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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