[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N18W 2N21W
2N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE NE GULF A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 29N87W. EAST OF THE
LOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N85W 27N85W 26N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE NORTH OF
25N EAST OF 87W. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW
GULF NORTH OF 25N. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY N OF 25N IN THE GULF IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ENJOYS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS WEAK WHICH IS SUPPORTING
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AND RETURN FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. AN
INCREASE OF WIND SPEED TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE N OF 27N OVER THE NW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...THE SOUTHERN GULF AS WELL AS THE WEST
ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH
GENERALLY 10-15 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
34N50W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT FRONT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 30N44W 26N46W TO 21N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
12N55W TO NEAR 7N55W. ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 54W-61W. OVER THE EAST ATLC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N E OF 28W. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net