[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
11W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC BUT DOES NOT EXTEND INTO THE GULF WATERS.
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC S OF 30N. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF
MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE N GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N GULF EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 28N89W TO 27N94W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WITHIN 75/90 NM
SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEAR 30N88W AT 05/2100 UTC. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NEAR 25N90W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEWLY FORMED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON WED. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A WEAK TROUGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT WHERE IT
WILL STALL. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT N ON THU WITH A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INLAND ALONG THE TROUGH. THIS SECOND
LOW WILL MOVE E THU NIGHT AND FRI DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF
THE TEXAS COAST THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SE OF THE GULF ON FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N78W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW
ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC S
OF 30N W OF 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
FRONT REMAINS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO
24N50W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 12N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A WEAK
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N27W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF
THE AZORES. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E THROUGH THU. A
WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E ACROSS THE FAR NW ATLC WED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
LATE FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N64W TO E CUBA BY
LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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