[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W 4N22W
1N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE NE GULF A SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N83W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 28N84W TO 25N86W. RADAR DATA SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF 25N
EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF
NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 91W. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY N OF 25N IN THE
GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF  BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. BESIDES THE NE GULF...ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF.
NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 KT SURROUNDS THE WEST
AND EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...RESPECTIVELY. WITHIN 24
HOURS...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND RETURN FLOW WILL BUILD OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF. AN INCREASE OF WIND SPEED TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE
N OF 26N OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND THE WEST ATLC.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY KEEP INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF
20-25 KT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH GENERALLY 15 KT FLOW
ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N70W
25N72W 23N73W TO 21N75W. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES TO THE NE OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N44W 26N46W TO 21N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 39W-49W. OVER THE EAST
ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-32N E OF 28W. THIS
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N26W. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN IT WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE WESTWARD
WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR









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