[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N13W
TO 8N17W AND 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W TO 1N31W
1N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N11W 5N28W 6N40W
12N47W 14N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR HAS EXITED THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD
OF THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS
OF THE OTHER OIL DRILLING SITES.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. PALACIOS AND BAY CITY
ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE AND LOWER AND FOG. THE
VISIBILITY IN PORT LAVACA HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS...AT 3 MILES OR LOWER AT TIMES...AND THEN AS HIGH
AS 5 MILES. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND FOG ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE
GULF COAST SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAIN COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI
TO FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND EASTWARD
AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N66W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N IN VENEZUELA
TO PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PASSES THROUGH SOUTH AMERICA...
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS MEANS THAT THE WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND IT PUSHES
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO 17N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N84W AND BEYOND 8N88W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM 11N
TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
60W. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AS IT PASSES THROUGH
60W CURVING TOWARD 50W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
25N60W AND 23N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N67W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N75W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N67W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 25N58W 22N64W...TO 20N AT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N TO 16N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
JUST THIS TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N27W TO
A 21N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N26W AND 7N26W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 14N55W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N48W AND BEYOND 32N43W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 23N44W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 20N35W 7N36W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N54W 22N68W
COLD FRONT AND THEN STATIONARY TO 20N75W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 24N
BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO
66W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF
14N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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