[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC TO NEAR 8N13W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W
2N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
13W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
OVER TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
AND W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND AND ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 28N W OF 89W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N75W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF MAINLY FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 85W-94W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
ALONG THE N GULF COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AND TUE. THE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON WED. THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ONSHORE THU AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE GULF
COASTAL PLAIN AGAIN BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF
THE AREA SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 74W FROM
15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 71W-75W. NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 82W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 65W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO 26N61W SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W ALONG 25N61W TO 23N67W WHERE IT PULLS UP
STATIONARY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N60W TO 21N69W. THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT IS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...THUS NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM
10N-27N BETWEEN 17W-35W AND CENTERED NEAR 20N25W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 15N-22N E OF 24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 20W-29W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N45W TO 9N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB
HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE TUE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CLIP THE WATERS N OF
30N BEFORE SHIFTING NE OF THE AREA WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI AND REACH FROM 32N64W TO E
CUBA BY LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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