[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU THAT IS NEAR 11N15W...TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 7N19W TO 3N24W AND 1N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
18W AND 25W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 35W
AND 41W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 5N10W 5N30W 7N37W 12N53W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
28N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG AND HAZE ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE
AREAS OF THE OTHER OIL DRILLING SITES.

LOW CLOUDS...LOW VISIBILITIES...FOG...AND SOME RAIN COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO
LOUISIANA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
RAIN IS FOUND ALSO IN SOME PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N72W IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...TO 11N88W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 13N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 15N67W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N67W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN
63W AND 72W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF COASTAL HAITI NEAR 18N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF 18N73W 13N72W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W
BEYOND 8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM
11N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
60W. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AS IT PASSES THROUGH
60W CURVING TOWARD 50W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
27N56W AND 23N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N65W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N70W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE 32N51W 27N56W 23N65W 20N74W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N68W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N48W 12N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N29W TO
A 23N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N27W AND 6N27W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 14N55W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N48W AND BEYOND 32N43W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 25N45W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 20N34W 8N34W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N53W 22N65W
COLD FRONT AND THEN STATIONARY TO 21N75W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 67W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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