[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 7N17W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W...
TO 2N30W 3N40W...CURVING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 10W AND
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 12W AND 36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 9N
BETWEEN 36W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 24N98W...BEYOND DEL RIO
TEXAS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
MOST-CURRENT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL
PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF
76W...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO 29N89W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...
INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE
OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF 88W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE IN THE
AREA OF SARASOTA-BRADENTON IN FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N66W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 15N
BETWEEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N70W 14N69W TO CURACAO IN THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W
AND 71W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN FROM THE LINE OF CLOUDS THAT HAS SPENT
THE LAST FEW DAYS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL 23N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF 24 HOURS AGO...
AND FROM THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH
AMERICA. THE WIND FLOW SPLITS AROUND 66W/67W...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE EAST OF 66W/67W...AND BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE WEST OF 66W/67W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ELSEWHERE...IN BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST
OF 73W. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM BARBADOS NORTHWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 6N77W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA
BEYOND 5N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 79W/80W
ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N68W TO 28N72W...PASSING ACROSS THE BERRY
ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH
NOW SUPPORTS THREE SEPARATE BOUNDARIES. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N67W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N67W TO 27N73W...CROSSING THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE BERRY
ISLANDS...BETWEEN THE ABACO ISLANDS AND ANDROS ISLAND...
TO 25N82W JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 26N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 27N64W.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 26N46W TO 22N44W TO 18N47W.
THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE SURFACE GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ARRAY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EARLIER AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N32W TO A 21N30W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N28W TO 11N28W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 18N54W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N52W AND BEYOND 32N45W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W
TO 25N31W AND 13N33W AND 10N34W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 78W...WITH A 31N68W
25N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 56W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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