[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N15W...NEAR THE COASTAL
BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU...TO 10N16W 4N18W 3N19W
AND 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W TO 3N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE
EAST OF 9W AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 5N28W 8N40W 11N46W
11N54W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N94W...BEYOND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE LATEST
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL PASSES
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR HAS EXITED THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO 28N89W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W...
INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE STOPPED BLOWING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WARNING HAS ENDED. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS
NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE
OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF 88W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTH OF BAY CITY. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL
CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. HIGH CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEAR SKIES
ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM MISSISSIPPI
TO FLORIDA NEAR THE TAMPA AREA. THE SARASOTA-BRADENTON AREA IN
FLORIDA IS CLEARING UP FROM EARLIER LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR FORT MYERS
ARE REPORTING A 3 MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS AND FOG.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N66W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO 17N BETWEEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N TO 17N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 11N
TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN FROM THE LINE OF
CLOUDS THAT HAS SPENT THE LAST FEW DAYS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 23N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
OF 24 HOURS AGO...AND FROM THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH
AMERICA. THE WIND FLOW SPLITS AROUND 67W...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE EAST OF 67W...AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
TO THE WEST OF 67W. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH COLOMBIA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...AND THAN ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING PUSHED
NORTHWARD BY THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ELSEWHERE...IN
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 73W. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 60W AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF 12N.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W 10N78W...ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA NEAR 9N82W...BEYOND 7N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF
73W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AT 12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOSE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
27N69W...PASSING ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
TO 22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. THE TROUGH NOW SUPPORTS TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W
TO 25N67W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N70W...
CROSSING ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 26N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 27N64W.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 25N45W TO 23N44W TO 20N44W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N41W 14N44W. THE TROUGHS WERE
PUT INTO THE ANALYSIS BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND
DATA AT THE TIME. THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE SURFACE GALE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ARRAY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE LAST
3 TO 4 DAYS. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN
41W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING THROUGH THE EARLIER AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N31W TO
A 19N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N27W TO 11N27W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN
18W AND 30W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 18N55W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N52W AND BEYOND 32N46W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W
TO 24N32W AND 10N32W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N65W 24N80W
COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 77W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W
AND 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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