[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO A 1007 MB LOW ALONG
THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING ACROSS THE E
TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N29W
2N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE NW ATLC INCLUDING THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC EXTENDS
ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND NAPLES TO 26N84W IN
THE SE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
VERMILION BAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO JUST N OF TAMPICO.
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 88W-95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE SE
GULF LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
WEAKEN MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO
THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS ON WED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU AND STALL OVER THE N
CENTRAL WATERS LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COLOMBIA
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS GIVING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N67W TO NEAR
16N70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 74W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS MON AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC N OF
25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N66W ALONG 26N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING NE AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING BERMUDA PUSHING THE FRONT FASTER N OF 27N. A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AT 03/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W TO
FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...THUS NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE AREA JUST TO THE E IS MOISTURE LADEN AND COUPLED
WITH A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND FAR SW ATLC THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 29N63W 26N70W TO OFF THE
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N76WARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF
THE COLD FRONT ABOVE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE SAME STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 22N31W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS
FURTHER TO THE W DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N45W ALONG 21N45W TO 18N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH NE OF
THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING BY THE COLD FRONT. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA THIS EVENING THEN FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BY LATE MON BEFORE MEANDERING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
ALONG 24N THROUGH THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF
31N LATE TUE BUT STALL FROM 32N74W TO NE FLORIDA THEN LIFT N THU
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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