[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 03N26W TO 03N45W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 25W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR
33N97W. A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE HIGH OVER TEXAS TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND A SEPARATE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N98W. A
FEW AREAS OF MULTILAYERED SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE
BASIN...WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 22N. PRECIPITATION REMAINS VERY LIMITED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY
WITH NE WINDS VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 07N69W. THE IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING THE BASIN IS VERY
DRY ALOFT AS NOTED IN THE 03/1200 UTC SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING. OTHER SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION SHOW A VERY SIMILAR PROFILE WITH DRY AIR AT OR ABOVE THE
700-800 MB LEVEL. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THESE
AREAS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N68W TO
10N64W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N73W TO
13N84W...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 81W.
OTHERWISE TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH WINDS
MORE NORTHEASTERLY W OF 78W. ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND
03/1418 UTC DEPICTED NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF
13N BETWEEN 73W-77W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC SENSE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
ATLC. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH STRONGEST SIGNATURE ON IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 33N77W
THAT SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FORMING COLD
FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 28N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-73W. TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THIS AREA...A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N58W
TO 29N65W TO 29N70W. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 27N67W TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
32N59W TO 22N76W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N34W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015
MB LOW AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NEAR 23N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 15N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1040 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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