[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 10N19W AND 6N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N22W...
TO 4N24W AND 4N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 1S BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W AND IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 49W AND 52W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
25W AND 40W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 4W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 79W/80W...
FROM 32N TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST
OF CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT STARTS
TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST...AND STILL WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MOISTURE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS MOVING FROM TEXAS AND MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO 29N86W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 24N94W...TO 19N96W
IN THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE
WIND CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

FAIR SKIES...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF
THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO
THE WEST OF 88W. THE STATION THAT IS NEAR SABINE LOUISIANA WAS
REPORTING LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE
ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
BEEN CLEARING AND LIFTING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE ALONG THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
FAIR SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ALONG THE REST OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA GULF COAST...TO 25N. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
EAST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG
80W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 75W...
AND THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY TO THE WEST OF 75W. THIS FLOW HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 23N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...INTO THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N70W 14N75W 13N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 14N70W 14N75W 13N83W.

THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 69W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AWAY
FROM THE AREA OF THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
22N42W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W TO
BEYOND 7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N70W 14N75W 13N83W ALONG THE
NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N57W TO
26N67W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO THE COAST
OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT 32N58W TO 29N65W AND 28N70W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N7OW TO 28N76W AND 31N79W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N52W 26N60W 24N70W TO 20N75W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...
INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY CUBA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/65W FROM 19N TO 24N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 18N62W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N57W AND BEYOND 32N50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N42W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 53W. A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH SPIRALS AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N43W 18N48W AND 21N55W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N38W
23N36W 18N40W 13N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 24W AND 37W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N27W TO 23N29W 16N29W TO 9N30W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE 31N58W
22N77W STATIONARY FRONT TO 66W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 54W...
WITH THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N42W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N
TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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