[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W...TO 3N24W AND 5N42W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 53W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 39W...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT STILL IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...TO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO 29N85W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 26N95W...TO 21N97W
IN THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF
THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W.

LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST FROM THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION TO PALACIOS TO
PORT LAVACA TO THE PEARLAND REGIONAL GENERAL AIRPORT IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA IN
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG
CONTINUE INTO LOUISIANA...TO THE ACADIANA REGIONAL GENERAL
AIRPORT AND TO THE SOUTH LAFOURCHE GENERAL AIRPORT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND
CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY IS TO THE EAST OF 75W...AND THE FLOW
IS NORTHEASTERLY TO THE WEST OF 75W. THIS FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 24N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO
THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W.

THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 68W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AWAY
FROM THE AREA OF THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N44W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 8N81W BEYOND
7N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST
CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
27N63W TO 24N70W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N7OW...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A COLD FRONT IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...PASSING
THROUGH 32N59W 28N67W 28N74W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FROM 28N74W TO 28N76W AND 30N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 26N60W...
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND POSSIBLY CUBA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 19N TO 24N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 22N63W
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N56W AND BEYOND 32N46W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N42W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 53W. A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH SPIRALS AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N40W 23N39W 20N43W AND 22N49W.
A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 25N41W 19N44W 19N51W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 20N37W TO 16N41W AND 12N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 27N
BETWEEN 24W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N27W 21N31W
AND 13N37W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
43W WITH THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N44W.
ALSO EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 54W. STATIONARY FRONT 31N57W
TO 22N76W. N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT
31N76W TO 23N81W. N OF 29N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net