[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS INTO
THE NW ATLC AND OVER THE GULF N OF 26N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT REMAINS OVER TEXAS. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COUPLED
WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N AND
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL RACE S ACROSS
THE E GULF SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E ACROSS THE GULF ON SUN
AND MON THEN WEAKENS MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY WED. A NEW FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. NE SURFACE
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 87W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 17N66W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 10N60W INCLUDING
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN AND DISSIPATE FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC N OF
26N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING ALONG 25N65W TO 24N71W WHERE IT
BEGINS TO RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W CONTINUING TO 28N71W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES TO 28N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75
NM NW OF THIS FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THESE FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES AND NE OF PUERTO RICO IS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO 19N64W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 23N40W
AND SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N43W. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 29N42W ALONG 26N37W TO 20N37W AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUING ALONG 16N41W TO 23N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE S OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 24N39W TO 19N47W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES. THE
FRONTS CURRENTLY IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
THIRD COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A SINGLE COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E
CUBA LATE SUN AND REACH FROM 32N61W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON
THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER S OF 24N THROUGH WED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED AND REACH FROM 32N67W TO E
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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