[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ AXIS FOLLOWS NEAR 4N16W AND
CONTINUES TO 3N25W 4N38W 3N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER GREATER PORTIONS OF THE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 88W
THAT ENJOYS CLEAR SKIES. THIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC.
HOWEVER NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED. IN THE SURFACE
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. WIND SPEED IS IN THE
RANGE OF 5-10 KT WITH FEW MINOR AREAS SHOWING 15 KT. AREAS WITH
15 KT WIND SPEED INCLUDE THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GULF OF CAMPECHE. RETURN FLOW DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED UP TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N78W 20N80W 19N82W 17N82W. NO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING CLOUD BANKING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HAZE HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WIND SPEED RANGE OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS 15-20 KT.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN LA HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 69W-78W. SIMILAR CLOUDINESS IS WEST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-16N. OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF
12N...NORTHEASTERLY WIND WITH MAXIMUM SPEED OF 25 KT IS
SUPPORTING CLOUD BANKING OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WHICH MIGHT
BE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BESIDES
THE DISSIPATION OF THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT...NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE BEING SUPPORTED
BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 26S. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO 28N73W AND CONTINUES AS
A DYING COLD FRONT TO 28N79W. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
30N59W TO 26N64W TO 24N68W...FROM THERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N74W TO NORTHEASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N77W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE
FRONTS...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 23N63W 21N63W 18N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 24N41W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW FROM 28N46W TO 23N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 17N38W 13N44W 10N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE S OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM 23N39W 20N42W TO
21N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 34W-42W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NE OF THE
LOW FROM 26N TO 30N E OF 39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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