[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...
CURVING TO 11N16W AND 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W...
TO 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 6W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N93W...OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

FAIR SKIES ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.
THE AREA OF ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON IN TEXAS WAS REPORTING
VISIBILITIES AT OR LOWER THAN 3 MILES WITH FOG DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...FROM 02/0900 UTC TO 02/1042 UTC. FAIR SKIES COVER
THE REST OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
THE AREA OF BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA REPORTED VISIBILITIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 2 MILES WITH FOG AROUND 02/0700 UTC. THE VISIBILITIES
GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER WITH TIME...UP TO THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 25N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER... BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT
CROSSES 60W AND BEYOND...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF
70W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA
COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W.

THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 66W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
IS MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 25N42W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W BEYOND
7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST
CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A FIRST COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO 25N70W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND 20N80W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
20N80W TO 18N84W AND THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N58W 27N66W 25N70W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF 70W ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS TO 80W...
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 87W. A SECOND COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR...
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 18N TO 26N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 22N64W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N42W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH SPIRALS AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N40W 23N39W 20N43W AND 22N49W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N45W
28N40W AND 24N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N36W TO 17N40W
AND 11N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
22N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 25N25W 17N30W
AND 10N40W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
14 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND
42W...WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N41W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT
20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N
TO THE EAST OF 41W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 15 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 55W AND FROM 12N TO 20N
TO THE EAST OF 58W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITH A 31N71W 29N81W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT TO THE EAST OF 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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