[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 3N ALONG
5N9W 6N17W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N22W 3N33W 2N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES AROUND A 1028 MB
HIGH SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
ANTI-CYCLONIC AROUND THE HIGH CENTER INCREASING IN SPEED
OUTWARD AND REACHING 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS AROUND THE BASE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SINKS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS SECOND FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY...SO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY
IS NOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W TO NORTH OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N84W 16N87W...AS OF 1500
UTC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE
EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN ATLC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE FRONT. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SMALL AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO CAUSING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SE
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLC ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND CUBA ALONG 26N73W 22N79W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE
EAST EXTENDING FROM NEAR HISPANIOLA TO 38N47W. THE RIDGE
SUPPORTS A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 41N33W...WHICH IS PROVIDING SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF THE FRONT TO 50W. TO
THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N41W SUPPORTS A CO-LOCATED
1009 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTS. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N40W 23N37W
BECOMING COLD ALONG 18N43W 18N53W 20N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT IS FARTHER OUT FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N37W 24N35W
18N38W 15N45W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N54W.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY IN THE
NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH FRONTS NORTH OF 20N
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NW OF THE CENTER NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
38W-44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N18W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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