[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO
04N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N17W TO 03N23W TO 04N31W TO 02N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 28N WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROGRESSING OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND
SUPPORTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 01/2100 UTC FROM
NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WESTWARD TO PANAMA CITY BECOMING
STATIONARY TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NEAR 30N90W. ASIDE FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THE FRONT
REMAINS DRY...YET EXHIBITS A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIR. SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR WESTERN PORTIONS S OF 25N W OF 95W...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-95W...AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
E OF 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL OVER THESE AREAS AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WEDGED ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE
AND INTERIOR COASTAL TERRAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 18N71W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY
DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. WHILE WEATHER E OF
80W REMAINS BENIGN THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-73W...A COLD FRONT
IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 19N87W AND INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES PREVAILING E OF 80W IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 KT...STRONGEST WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
FRONT...EASTERNMOST OF THE TWO...ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N62W AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N78W TO
THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. WHILE IT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-
FREE OVERALL...INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING
INCREASED MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS N OF 28N. A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL ALSO FILTER SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N41W THAT SUPPORTS A
1009 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO 27N39W TO 24N37W AND BECOMES A COLD FRONT S-SW TO 20N38W
TO 16N47W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER WITH THE NE QUADRANT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 17N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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