[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 10N16W 8N17W 6N18W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 6N18W TO 2N23W
2N27W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
5W AND 7W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 36W AND 39W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO ARE NOT IN THE AREA ANYMORE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N75W
THROUGH 29N81W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N90W...TO 26N96W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO 19N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE
OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W.

FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS
FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 82W
AND 88W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N77W...THROUGH 10N83W IN COSTA RICA...TO 13N85W
IN NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST TO THE
EAST OF JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 80W. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 25N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT
CROSSES 60W...MOVING BETWEEN 60W AND 75W AS EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST
OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 14N70W 14N76W 14N83W
ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND
82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH
A 22N77W 16N86W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST
OF 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N55W 26N64W 25N73W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
THE FRONTS THAT ARE BETWEEN 34W AND 58W AND THE 32N68W-ANDROS
ISLAND-CUBA NEAR 23N81W COLD FRONT.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...
TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO
BELIZE NEAR 17N89W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 29N70W
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N78W 16N84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N40W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 17N40W...
BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 17N40W TO 12N50W AND 10N57W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM 27N43W TO 29N40W 27N36W 23N37W.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N37W TO 20N40W TO 18N47W AND
21N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N36W 26N35W 20N38W
16N48W 17N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N16W TO 34N30W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
17 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND
44W...WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W
AND A 26N35W 18N46W COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 10 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W.
A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N69W 22N77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM TO THE
EAST THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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