[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W
TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W TO 4N26W 2N31W 2N36W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...TO 1S42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 17W...TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
17W AND 43W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO ARE NOT IN THE AREA ANYMORE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N90W...TO 21N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE
OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W.

FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS
FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N77W...THROUGH 10N83W IN COSTA RICA...TO
13N85W IN NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA...OVERALL TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL 26N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT CROSSES 60W...MOVING
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W AS EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST
OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 14N70W 14N76W 14N83W
ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 22N82W 17N87W COLD FRONT...TO THE
NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 28N59W 25N69W...
INTO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE FRONTS THAT ARE BETWEEN
33W AND 56W AND THE 32N70W-ANDROS ISLAND-BELIZE COLD FRONT.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT 32N70W...TO ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO BELIZE NEAR
17N89W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N40W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 19N40W
15N45W...AND 12N58W. TWO COLD FRONTS CURVE AWAY FROM THE
CENTER...ALONG 27N35W 20N43W 20N50W 21N53W. A SECOND AND
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE FIRST FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N21W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 26N25W 20N30W...TO 10N39W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
17 TO 20 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 40W AND
44W...WITH THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N37W
AND A 27N35W 20N45W 21N54W COLD FRONT. 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
12 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
38W AND 47W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 55W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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