[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 240
NM OF A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 20N93W THROUGH EARLY WED. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 3N45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF
3.5N BETWEEN 8W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT
31/2100 UTC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W 23N83W
23N91W TO A 1016 MB GALE CENTER IN THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W THEN
TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE ENTIRE GULF
N AND W OF THE FRONT IS COVERED BY DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.
RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER N OF LINE
FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA ALONG 29N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE ON WED REACHING N
FLORIDA ON THU DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY
THU WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRI
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM BELIZE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COULD DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES. ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT E ON
FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
TRADE WINDS COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THE TRADE WINDS COULD INDUCED ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N52W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC AT
31/2100 UTC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N64W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO 25N78W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF
THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 30N9W
ALONG 25N33W 20N50W TO E OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N58W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF W ATLC FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N27W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM
32N60W TO NW CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST EARLY
THU AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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