[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 24N81W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N94W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND 9 TO
14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO
THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF
88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 10N16W 7N16W AND 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W
TO 3N28W TO 5N41W...AND INTO THE FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 7W AND 8W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 10W
AND 13W...AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N62W...TO 27N70W...TO ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM ELEUTHERA ISLAND...ACROSS
ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N90W...
CURVING TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N94W...
TO 19N92W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N
TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 27N66W 24N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO
20N98W IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO
STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
AND MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN...COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...ALL AROUND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND SOUTHERN/COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...AND FROM PERRY SOUTHWARD TO BROOKSVILLE...THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND PUNTA GORDA. CLEARING SKIES...
SOMEWHAT...FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE FOUND
FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO...IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL FOLLOW...WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE REST OF THE
48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS...WITH A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH THE SAME RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
APPROACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 8N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
6N80W 7N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST
OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
10 TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 83W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N32W TO
21N45W...TO A 16N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N60W...
JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO
25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N9W AT THE COAST OF MOROCCO...
THROUGH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N33W...
TO 28N61W...TO 24N71W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...
INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 79W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 24N35W TO 20N62W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 30N
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF A 31N78W 29N81W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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