[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 23N TO 94W IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS S
OF 25N W OF 92W DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 03N34W TO 02N47W TO 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 02W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N106W THAT IS
PROVIDING THE GULF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...MUCH OF
THE GULF...PORTIONS INLAND ALONG THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N TO A
BROAD OPEN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W.
THE FRONT IS PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL LIFT WHILE THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PROVIDING THE LIFTING DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER
NORTH...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W-
SW TO EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF...AND QUICKLY BE SWEPT UP BY THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY
THURSDAY INTO MID-DAY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE
WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE USUAL SMALL
AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-79W OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF CONCENTRATED ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-
19N BETWEEN 80W-85W...FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 85W-97W...AND ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN
NICARAGUA TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADEWIND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
IMPACTING THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AND VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 39N75W OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST THAT
SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N67W THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N77W. A PRIOR WAVE OF ENERGY REMAINS
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
ANALYZED TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N69W THEN SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO VIA THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND AREAS
NORTH TO THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS A PAIR
OF 1028 MB HIGHS ANCHOR A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
ALGERIA ACROSS NW AFRICA ALONG 30N TO 50W THEN TO 26N70W. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BRIDGES THE TWO HIGH CENTERS
EXTENDING FROM 33N23W TO 30N39W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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