[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Dec 31 05:56:15 CST 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 311159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 24N81W 23N94W 19N96W. GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ALSO FROM 22N TO
25N TO THE WEST OF 92W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST
OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO
6N17W AND 3N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N24W TO 4N32W AND
3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N
TO THE EAST OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 18W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W
AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS MEXICO...FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W...ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA. A SHALLOW
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...TO
ABACO ISLAND/GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE
FRONT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W AND 19N96W. THE SECOND SHALLOW COLD FRONT
THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVED THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
YESTERDAY/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY...AND IT ALREADY MERGED
WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N84W 26N92W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N
TO 24N BETWEEN CUBA AND 87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
23N82W 26N76W 29N71W BEYOND BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A TEXAS 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N98W...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 23N98W...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. PLEASE PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO
STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
BROOKSVILLE...THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND FROM PUNTA GORDA
TO NAPLES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
MARATHON TO KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 21N86W AND TROUGH FROM
19N92W TO 22N96W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N81W TO 26N88W TO 19N96W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
PUERTO PLATA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 12N.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 9N88W INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 4N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF
79W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO
27N32W 23N43W...TO A 17N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
11N60W...JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 30N34W AND 27N42W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 27N42W TO 26N51W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N9W IN MAURITANIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS AFRICA...
AND NOT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANYMORE.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N11W 30N24W 24N36W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N41W TO 31N48W 29N56W TO
27N71W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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