[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT IS ALONG 30N87.5W TO A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28.5N88.5W...TO 26N90W 24N95W AND 19N96W. GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 91W AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
7N17W AND 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 3N40W 2N46W
AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 2N TO 4N TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W
AND 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO
6N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
FROM MEXICO...FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 97W AND 106W...ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...ALL OF
LOUISIANA...AND BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N69W...TO ABACO
ISLAND/GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS STATIONARY
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO
24N84W AND 23N87W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND
SHALLOW COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N89W...TO 25N94W AND 20N96W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N80W 29N72W BEYOND 32N66W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO
STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 21N86W AND TROUGH FROM
19N92W TO 22N96W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N81W TO 26N88W TO 19N96W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
ORIENTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 12N.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA...TO THE BAHAMAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 6N80W AND
BEYOND 7N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N TO
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
29N32W 23N44W...TO A 19N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
13N58W...AND TO 11N62W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W AND 32N30W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N30W TO 30N35W AND 27N40W. THE
FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 27N40W TO 26N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO
20N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 22N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N10W IN MAURITANIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS AFRICA...
AND NOT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE MOMENT ANYMORE.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N19W TO 29N28W AND 24N36W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N41W TO 31N48W 28N63W 27N72W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N35W 27N41.5W TO
26.5N51W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 46W.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND
63W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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