[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-
25N W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY WED. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W 2N42W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 11W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W
ATLC AND COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAIN STATES ARE GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A
REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT 30/2100 UTC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 24N84W WHERE IT IS
BEGINNING TO RETREAT N AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 24N86W TO 23N88W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT. A SECOND
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE W GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SE
LOUISIANA JUST E OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ALONG 27N93W TO A WEAK
1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N95W CONTINUING ALONG 22N95W TO 20N96W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N95W TO 20N92W. DENSE
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA W OF LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY
FLORIDA ALONG 25N92W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. RADAR INDICATES
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNDER THIS CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO MEXICO. E GULF FRONT WILL
MEANDER TONIGHT AND TUE. W GULF FRONT WILL MOVE S AND SE ACROSS
THE W HALF OF GULF THROUGH TUE THEN MERGE WITH E GULF STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE.
A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF ALONG FRONT
ON WED AND LIFT N WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THEN SHIFT QUICKLY E-
NE ACROSS THE N GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC. THE WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS MERGING
WITH N FLOW ALOFT OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT
EASTWARD ON THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING. NW TO N
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. HOWEVER SOME TRADE WIND
INDUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N58W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 30/2100
UTC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W ALONG
23N50W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 28N40W TO 26N50W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N41W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
NW CUBA LATE TUE THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 32N57W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON WED AND THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF SE UNITED STATES COAST ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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